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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Thursday Poll Dancing

UPDATE  New from PPP:  Since debate, Obama widens leads in Wisconsin (to 6%) and in Iowa (to 2%).  Also, surprise, gains tie in N. Carolina.  But believe the media: debate didn't matter, and...Mittmentum!

Brand new from Rasmussen: Obama still up solid 5% in PA, despite GOP attempts to spin it as up for grabs.

Gallup's 1 pm report just up, after finding Obama cutting 3% off Romney's lead in past two days along with surge in approval rating.   Today:  no change at all in race, reg or likely voters, Obama takes 2% hit on approval but still at 51%.

Nate Silver's morning analysis has Mittmentum--if there was much of it--halted and Obama at highest point since Oct. 9 for winning, up to 71%.   He gained in five of six tracking polls yesterday and Nate points out that this was best day for any candidate recently--disputing the assertions to major trend to Mitt.

Earlier: Here we go again, buckle your seat belts.  Rasmussen just out with daily tracker, showing Obama gaining a point, and closing gap to -3%.   Still only two of the three post-debate days included in that.  Rasmussen still has virtually every key Senate race with better numbers for GOPers than most other polls.

First new state one I've seen comes from PPP, giving Obama nice 5% lead in ol' Virginny.   In fact, it's been odd to see most in media now considering this state moving toward Romney when poll averaging finds Obama in front there by a couple of points.   See my post here on media falling for Romney "momentum" hype despite evidence to contrary.

AP has a national poll giving Romney a 2% lead but talk about being an outlier--it actually finds the two candidates dead even among women!  No other major poll even comes close to showing that.

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